A race between SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination: The case of the B.1.1.7 variant in France

Paolo Bosetti; Cécile Tran Kiem; Alessio Andronico; Juliette Paireau; Daniel Levy Bruhl; Bruno Lina; Yazdan Yazdanpanah; Arnaud Fontanet; Vittoria Colizza; Pierre-Yves Boëlle; Simon Cauchemez

Preprints, Working Papers, ...

A race between SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination: The case of the B.1.1.7 variant in France

Paolo Bosetti ¹ Cécile Tran Kiem ^{1, 2} Alessio Andronico ¹ Juliette Paireau ^{1, 3} Daniel Levy Bruhl ⁴ Bruno Lina ^{5, 6} Yazdan Yazdanpanah ⁷ Arnaud Fontanet ^{8, 9} Vittoria Colizza ¹⁰ Pierre-Yves Boëlle ¹⁰ Simon Cauchemez ^{1, *}

* Corresponding author

1 Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases

2 Collège doctoral [Sorbonne universités]

3 Direction des maladies infectieuses - Infectious Diseases Division [Saint-Maurice]

4 Infections respiratoires et vaccination [Saint-Maurice]

Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France]

5 CNR - Centre National de Référence des Virus des Infections Respiratoires (dont la Grippe) [Lyon]

6 Virpath - Virpath-Grippe, de l'émergence au contrôle -- Virpath-Influenza, from emergence to control

CIRI - Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie - UMR

7 IAME (UMR_S_1137 / U1137) - Infection, Anti-microbiens, Modélisation, Evolution

8 Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology

9 PACRI - Pasteur-Cnam risques infectieux et émergents

10 iPLESP - Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique

Abstract : The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has entered an uncertain race between the emergence of variants that are more transmissible and vaccine roll-out. Here, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate how the interplay of variants, vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions might shape the pandemic dynamics, using the rise of the B.1.1.7 variant in metropolitan France as a case study. Our analysis highlights the challenges ahead for the management of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and shows how the quick roll-out of vaccines to at-risk individuals and non-pharmaceutical interventions are needed to mitigate the impact of the emerging variants.

Document type :

Preprints, Working Papers, ...

Domain :

Life Sciences [q-bio] / Santé publique et épidémiologie

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https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-03149525
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Submitted on : Tuesday, February 23, 2021 - 10:14:05 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, September 28, 2021 - 5:16:42 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, May 24, 2021 - 6:21:26 PM

A race between SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination: The case of the B.1.1.7 variant in France

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A race between SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination: The case of the B.1.1.7 variant in France

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