A race between SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination: The case of the B.1.1.7 variant in France

Paolo Bosetti (1) , Cécile Tran Kiem (1, 2) , Alessio Andronico (1) , Juliette Paireau (1, 3) , Daniel Levy Bruhl (4) , Bruno Lina (5, 6) , Yazdan Yazdanpanah (7) , Arnaud Fontanet (8, 9) , Vittoria Colizza (10) , Pierre-Yves Boëlle (10) , Simon Cauchemez (1)

1 Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases
2 Collège Doctoral
3 Direction des maladies infectieuses - Infectious Diseases Division [Saint-Maurice]
4 Infections respiratoires et vaccination [Saint-Maurice]
5 CNR - Centre National de Référence des Virus des Infections Respiratoires (dont la Grippe) [Lyon]
6 Virpath - Virpath-Grippe, de l'émergence au contrôle -- Virpath-Influenza, from emergence to control
7 IAME (UMR_S_1137 / U1137) - Infection, Anti-microbiens, Modélisation, Evolution
8 Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology
9 PACRI - Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents
10 iPLESP - Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has entered an uncertain race between the emergence of variants that are more transmissible and vaccine roll-out. Here, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate how the interplay of variants, vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions might shape the pandemic dynamics, using the rise of the B.1.1.7 variant in metropolitan France as a case study. Our analysis highlights the challenges ahead for the management of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and shows how the quick roll-out of vaccines to at-risk individuals and non-pharmaceutical interventions are needed to mitigate the impact of the emerging variants.

Domains: Life Sciences [q-bio]; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Alessio Andronico, Juliette Paireau, Daniel Levy Bruhl, et al.. A race between SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination: The case of the B.1.1.7 variant in France. 2021. ⟨pasteur-03149525⟩