Early chains of transmission of COVID-19 in France, January to March 2020

Juliette Paireau (1, 2) , Alexandra Mailles (2) , Catherine Eisenhauer (1) , Franck de Laval (3, 4, 5) , François Delon (4, 3, 5) , Paolo Bosetti (1) , Henrik Salje (1, 6) , Valérie Pontiès (7) , Simon Cauchemez (1)

1 Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases
2 Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France]
3 SESSTIM - U1252 INSERM - Aix Marseille Univ - UMR 259 IRD - Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé & Traitement de l'Information Médicale
4 CESPA - Centre d'épidémiologie et de santé publique des armées [Marseille]
5 ISSPAM - Institut des sciences de la santé publique [Marseille]
6 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
7 Santé publique France, Haut-de-France [Lille, France]

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread rapidly worldwide. In January 2020, a surveillance system was implemented in France for early detection of cases and their contacts to help limit secondary transmissions. Aim: To use contact-tracing data collected during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to better characterise SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We analysed data collected during contact tracing and retrospective epidemiological investigations in France from 24 January to 30 March 2020. We assessed the secondary clinical attack rate and characterised the risk of a contact becoming a case. We described chains of transmission and estimated key parameters of spread. Results: During the study period, 6,082 contacts of 735 confirmed cases were traced. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 4.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6-4.6), increasing with age of index case and contact. Compared with co-workers/friends, family contacts were at higher risk of becoming cases (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.0) and nosocomial contacts were at lower risk (AOR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-0.7). Of 328 infector/infectee pairs, 49% were family members. The distribution of secondary cases was highly over-dispersed: 80% of secondary cases were caused by 10% of cases. The mean serial interval was 5.1 days (interquartile range (IQR): 2-8 days) in contact tracing pairs, where late transmission events may be censored, and 6.8 (3-8) days in pairs investigated retrospectively. Conclusion: This study increases knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including the importance of superspreading events during the onset of the pandemic.

Mots clés: SARS-CoV-2; cluster; contact tracing; secondary clinical attack rate; superspreading; transmission

Domaines: Santé publique et épidémiologie

Juliette Paireau, Alexandra Mailles, Catherine Eisenhauer, Franck de Laval, François Delon, et al.. Early chains of transmission of COVID-19 in France, January to March 2020. Eurosurveillance, 2022, 27 (6), pp.2001953. ⟨10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.6.2001953⟩. ⟨pasteur-03690813⟩