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Model-based assessment of Chikungunya and O’nyong-nyong virus circulation in Mali in a serological cross-reactivity context

Abstract : Serological surveys are essential to quantify immunity in a population but serological cross-reactivity often impairs estimates of the seroprevalence. Here, we show that modeling helps addressing this key challenge by considering the important cross-reactivity between Chikungunya (CHIKV) and O’nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) as a case study. We develop a statistical model to assess the epidemiology of these viruses in Mali. We additionally calibrate the model with paired virus neutralization titers in the French West Indies, a region with known CHIKV circulation but no ONNV. In Mali, the model estimate of ONNV and CHIKV prevalence is 30% and 13%, respectively, versus 27% and 2% in non-adjusted estimates. While a CHIKV infection induces an ONNV response in 80% of cases, an ONNV infection leads to a cross-reactive CHIKV response in only 22% of cases. Our study shows the importance of conducting serological assays on multiple cross-reactive pathogens to estimate levels of virus circulation.
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https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-03511907
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Submitted on : Wednesday, January 5, 2022 - 10:48:18 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, April 7, 2022 - 1:58:36 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, April 6, 2022 - 6:51:18 PM

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Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

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Nathanaël Hozé, Issa Diarra, Abdoul Karim Sangaré, Boris Pastorino, Laura Pezzi, et al.. Model-based assessment of Chikungunya and O’nyong-nyong virus circulation in Mali in a serological cross-reactivity context. Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 12 (1), pp.6735. ⟨10.1038/s41467-021-26707-9⟩. ⟨pasteur-03511907⟩

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