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Using Serology to Anticipate Measles Post-honeymoon Period Outbreaks

Abstract : Measles vaccination is a public health 'best buy', with the highest cost of illness averted of any vaccine-preventable disease (Ozawa et al., Bull. WHO 2017;95:629). In recent decades, substantial reductions have been made in the number of measles cases, with an estimated 20 million deaths averted from 2000 to 2017 (Dabbagh et al., MMWR 2018;67:1323). Yet, an important feature of epidemic dynamics is that large outbreaks can occur following years of apparently successful control (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Such 'post-honeymoon period' outbreaks are a result of the nonlinear dynamics of epidemics (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Anticipating post-honeymoon outbreaks could lead to substantial gains in public health, helping to guide the timing, age-range, and location of catch-up vaccination campaigns (Grais et al., J. Roy. Soc. Interface 2008003B6:67-74). Theoretical conditions for such outbreaks are well understood for measles, yet the information required to make these calculations policy-relevant is largely lacking. We propose that a major extension of serological studies to directly characterize measles susceptibility is a high priority.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 23, 2021 - 10:48:28 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, April 7, 2022 - 10:10:46 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, February 24, 2022 - 7:28:54 PM

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C.J.E. Metcalf, A. Wesolowski, A.K. Winter, J. Lessler, Simon Cauchemez, et al.. Using Serology to Anticipate Measles Post-honeymoon Period Outbreaks. Trends in Microbiology, Elsevier, 2020, 28 (8), pp.597-600. ⟨10.1016/j.tim.2020.04.009⟩. ⟨pasteur-03442505⟩

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