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Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

Zhanwei Du 1 Lin Wang 2 Simon Cauchemez 2 Xiaoke Xu 3 Xianwen Wang 4 Benjamin Cowling 5 Lauren Ancel Meyers 1, 6, *
* Corresponding author
1 University of Texas at Austin [Austin]
2 Institut Pasteur [Paris]
3 Dalian Minzu University
4 Dalian University of Technology
5 HKU - The University of Hong Kong
6 Santa Fe Institute
Abstract : On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.
Keywords : 2019 novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 China SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan coronavirus epidemiology importation outbreak severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viruses
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https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-03325895
Contributor : Cécile Limouzin <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, August 25, 2021 - 1:49:45 PM
Last modification on : Friday, August 27, 2021 - 3:30:03 AM

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Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Simon Cauchemez, Xiaoke Xu, Xianwen Wang, et al.. Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China. Emerging Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020, 26 (5), pp.1049-1052. ⟨10.3201/eid2605.200146⟩. ⟨pasteur-03325895⟩

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