Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

Zhanwei Du; Lin Wang; Simon Cauchemez; Xiaoke Xu; Xianwen Wang; Benjamin J. Cowling; Lauren Ancel Meyers

doi:10.3201/eid2605.200146

Journal articles

Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

Zhanwei Du ¹ Lin Wang ² Simon Cauchemez ² Xiaoke Xu ³ Xianwen Wang ⁴ Benjamin J. Cowling ⁵ Lauren Ancel Meyers ^{1, 6, *}

* Corresponding author

1 University of Texas at Austin [Austin]

2 Institut Pasteur [Paris]

3 Dalian Minzu University

4 Dalian University of Technology

5 HKU - The University of Hong Kong

6 Santa Fe Institute

Abstract : On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.

Keywords : 2019 novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 China SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan coronavirus epidemiology importation outbreak severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viruses

Document type :

Journal articles

Domain :

Mathematics [math] / Statistics [math.ST]

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https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-03325895
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Submitted on : Wednesday, August 25, 2021 - 1:49:45 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, April 7, 2022 - 10:10:46 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, November 26, 2021 - 7:52:53 PM

Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

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Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

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