Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

Zhanwei Du (1) , Lin Wang (2) , Simon Cauchemez (2) , Xiaoke Xu (3) , Xianwen Wang (4) , Benjamin J. Cowling (5) , Lauren Ancel Meyers (1, 6)

1 University of Texas at Austin [Austin]
2 IP - Institut Pasteur [Paris]
3 Dalian Minzu University
4 Dalian University of Technology
5 HKU - The University of Hong Kong
6 Santa Fe Institute

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; China; SARS-CoV-2; Wuhan; coronavirus; epidemiology; importation; outbreak; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses

Domains: Mathematics [math]; Statistics [math.ST]

Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Simon Cauchemez, Xiaoke Xu, Xianwen Wang, et al.. Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020, 26 (5), pp.1049-1052. ⟨10.3201/eid2605.200146⟩. ⟨pasteur-03325895⟩