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Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France

Abstract : Vaccination will change SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. We used an age stratified compartmental model calibrated to French data to anticipate these changes and determine implications for epidemic control, assuming vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalisation, infection and transmission if infected by 95%, 60% and 50%, respectively. In our baseline scenario (R0=5; vaccine coverage of 70%-80%-90% among 12-17, 18-59 and ≥60 y.o.), important stress on healthcare is expected without measures. Unvaccinated adults ≥60 y.o. represent 3% of the population but 43% of hospitalisations. Children aged 0-17 y.o. represent a third of infections and are responsible for almost half of transmissions. Unvaccinated individuals have a disproportionate contribution to transmission so that measures targeting them may help maximize epidemic control while minimizing costs for society compared to non-targeted approaches. With the Delta variant, vaccinated individuals are well protected against hospitalization but remain at risk of infection and should therefore apply protective behaviours (e.g. mask wearing). Control strategies should account for the changing SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
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https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-03272638
Contributor : Anne Lassailly-Bondaz Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, September 6, 2021 - 10:07:32 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, October 20, 2021 - 11:49:15 AM

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  • HAL Id : pasteur-03272638, version 2

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Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Alessio Andronico, Vittoria Colizza, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, et al.. Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France. 2021. ⟨pasteur-03272638v2⟩

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