SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control
Abstract
The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while
relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches
requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed agespecific
case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer
2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different agetargeted
intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started
in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact
reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive from these patterns
the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces
mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic
remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those that contribute more to transmission is better
than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.
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