SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

Cécile Kiem; Paolo Bosetti; Juliette Paireau; Pascal Crepey; Henrik Salje; Noémie Lefrancq; Arnaud Fontanet; Daniel Benamouzig; Pierre-Yves Boëlle; Jean-Claude Desenclos; Lulla Opatowski; Simon Cauchemez

Preprints, Working Papers, ...

SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

Cécile Kiem ^{1, 2} Paolo Bosetti ¹ Juliette Paireau ^{1, 3} Pascal Crepey ^{4, 5, 6} Henrik Salje ^{1, 7} Noémie Lefrancq ^{1, 7} Arnaud Fontanet ^{8, 9, 10} Daniel Benamouzig ¹¹ Pierre-Yves Boëlle ¹² Jean-Claude Desenclos ³ Lulla Opatowski ^{13, 14} Simon Cauchemez ^{1, *}

* Corresponding author

1 Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases

2 Collège doctoral [Sorbonne universités]

3 Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France]

4 REPERES - Recherche en Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Recours aux Soins

5 EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP]

6 METIS - Département Méthodes quantitatives en santé publique

7 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]

8 Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology

9 CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]

10 PACRI - Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents

11 CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations

12 iPLESP - Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique

13 EMAE - Epidémiologie et modélisation de la résistance aux antimicrobiens - Epidemiology and modelling of bacterial escape to antimicrobials

14 CESP - Centre de recherche en épidémiologie et santé des populations

Abstract : The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed agespecific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different agetargeted intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive from these patterns the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those that contribute more to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.

Document type :

Preprints, Working Papers, ...

Domain :

Life Sciences [q-bio] / Santé publique et épidémiologie

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https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-03170966
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Submitted on : Friday, October 15, 2021 - 2:24:25 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, November 18, 2021 - 5:28:02 PM

SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

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SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

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