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SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

Abstract : The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged >80 y.o. after 4 weeks, indicating substantial porosity across ages. We derive from these patterns the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces morbi-mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those that contribute more to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-03170966
Contributor : Floran Bidault <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, March 16, 2021 - 3:44:00 PM
Last modification on : Friday, April 16, 2021 - 3:10:37 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, June 17, 2021 - 7:45:59 PM

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Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives 4.0 International License

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  • HAL Id : pasteur-03170966, version 1

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Cécile Kiem, Paolo Bosetti, Juliette Paireau, Pascal Crepey, Henrik Salje, et al.. SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control. 2021. ⟨pasteur-03170966⟩

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