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Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
Henrik Salje
1, 2
Cécile Tran Kiem
1
Noémie Lefrancq
1
Noémie Courtejoie
3
Paolo Bosetti
1
Juliette Paireau
1, 4
Alessio Andronico
1
Nathanaël Hoze
1
Jehanne Richet
3
Claire-Lise Dubost
3
Yann Le Strat
4
Justin Lessler
5
Daniel Bruhl
4
Arnaud Fontanet
6, 7
Lulla Opatowski
8
Pierre-Yves Boëlle
9
Simon Cauchemez
1, *
*
Corresponding author
Henrik Salje 1, 2
Author
Cécile Tran Kiem 1
Author
Noémie Lefrancq 1
Author IdHAL : noemie-lefrancq
Noémie Courtejoie 3
Author
Paolo Bosetti 1
Author
Juliette Paireau 1, 4
Author IdHAL : juliette-paireau
Alessio Andronico 1
Author
Nathanaël Hoze 1
Author
Daniel Levy Bruhl 4
Author
Arnaud Fontanet 6, 7
Author
Lulla Opatowski 8
Author
Pierre-Yves Boëlle 9
Author IdHAL : pierre-yves-boelle ORCID : https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5367-8232
Simon Cauchemez 1
Correspondent author
1
Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases (25-28, rue du Docteur Roux
75724 Paris cedex 15 - France)
- Institut Pasteur [Paris] (25-28, rue du docteur Roux, 75724 Paris cedex 15 - France)
- CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR 2000 (France)
2
Department of Genetics [Cambridge] (Downing Street
Cambridge CB2 3EH - United Kingdom)
- CAM - University of Cambridge [UK] (The Old Schools, Trinity Lane, Cambridge CB2 1TN - United Kingdom)
3
DREES - Centre de Recherche du DREES (Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, 127, rue de Grenelle, 75007 PARIS 07 SP - France)
4
Direction des maladies infectieuses - Infectious Diseases Division [Saint-Maurice] (France)
- Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France] (Santé publique France (siège social) 12, rue du Val d'Osne 94415 Saint-Maurice cedex - France)
5
Department of Epidemiology [Baltimore] (United States)
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health [Baltimore] (615 N Wolfe St, Baltimore, MD 21205 - United States)
- JHU - Johns Hopkins University (Baltimore, Maryland 410-516-8000 - United States)
6
Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology (Département Infection et Epidémiologie, 25-28 rue du Docteur Roux, F-75724 Paris Cedex 15 - France)
- PACRI - Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (Paris - France)
- CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (France)
- HESAM - HESAM Université (15, rue Soufflot 75005 Paris - France)
- Institut Pasteur [Paris] (25-28, rue du docteur Roux, 75724 Paris cedex 15 - France)
- CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (France)
7
CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (France)
- HESAM - HESAM Université (15, rue Soufflot 75005 Paris - France)
8
EMAE - Epidémiologie et modélisation de la résistance aux antimicrobiens - Epidemiology and modelling of bacterial escape to antimicrobials (Département Santé globale
25-28 rue du Docteur Roux
75724 Paris cedex 15 - France)
- Institut Pasteur [Paris] (25-28, rue du docteur Roux, 75724 Paris cedex 15 - France)
- INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale : U1181 (101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris - France)
9
iPLESP - Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (56, boulevard Vincent Auriol - CS 81393 - 75646 Paris Cedex 13 - France)
- INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale : U1136 (101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris - France)
- SU - Sorbonne Université (21 rue de l’École de médecine - 75006 Paris - France)
Abstract : France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17th March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 2.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.53% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20y to 8.3% in those >80y. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 3.3 to 0.5 (84% reduction). By 11 May, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 3.7 million (range: 2.3-6.7) people, 5.7% of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown
Document type :
Preprints, Working Papers, ...
Complete list of metadata
https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181
Contributor : Agnès Raymond-Denise Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, April 20, 2020 - 3:18:06 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, April 7, 2022 - 10:10:43 AM
Contributor : Agnès Raymond-Denise Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, April 20, 2020 - 3:18:06 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, April 7, 2022 - 10:10:43 AM
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Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives 4.0 International License
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- HAL Id : pasteur-02548181, version 1
Collections
PASTEUR | TDS-MACS | IPLESP | SORBONNE-UNIVERSITE | SU-MEDECINE | UNIV-PARIS-SACLAY | CNAM | CNRS | UNIV-HESAM | INSERM | SU-TI
Citation
Henrik Salje, Cécile Tran Kiem, Noémie Lefrancq, Noémie Courtejoie, Paolo Bosetti, et al.. Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France. 2020. ⟨pasteur-02548181⟩
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