https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01064890Biggerstaff, MatthewMatthewBiggerstaffEpidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division - CDC - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionCauchemez, SimonSimonCauchemezModÃ©lisation mathÃ©matique des maladies infectieuses - Institut Pasteur [Paris] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueReed, CarrieCarrieReedEpidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division - CDC - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionGambhir, ManojManojGambhirNational Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC - CDC - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionFinelli, LynLynFinelliEpidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division - CDC - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionEstimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literatureHAL CCSD2014[SDV.MHEP.MI] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseasesBMC, Ed.2014-09-17 13:23:472023-02-04 04:17:242014-09-18 11:22:13enJournal articleshttps://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01064890/document10.1186/1471-2334-14-480application/pdf1Background The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. Methods We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. Results The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47-2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53-1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56-1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30-1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19-1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were. Conclusions These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.