Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France
Abstract
Vaccination will change SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. We used an age stratified
compartmental model calibrated to French data to anticipate these changes and determine
implications for epidemic control, assuming vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalisation,
infection and transmission if infected by 95%, 60% and 50%, respectively. In our baseline
scenario (R0=5; vaccine coverage of 70%-80%-90% among 12-17, 18-59 and ≥60 y.o.),
important stress on healthcare is expected without measures. Unvaccinated adults ≥60 y.o.
represent 3% of the population but 43% of hospitalisations. Children aged 0-17 y.o.
represent a third of infections and are responsible for almost half of transmissions.
Unvaccinated individuals have a disproportionate contribution to transmission so that
measures targeting them may help maximize epidemic control while minimizing costs for
society compared to non-targeted approaches. With the Delta variant, vaccinated individuals
are well protected against hospitalization but remain at risk of infection and should therefore
apply protective behaviours (e.g. mask wearing). Control strategies should account for the
changing SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
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