Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 epidemics are expected to change with vaccination. Here, we used an age stratified compartmental model applied to France to anticipate how partial vaccination may modify SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and determine implications for epidemic control this autumn. In our baseline scenario characterized by R 0 =4 and a vaccine coverage of 30%-70%-90% among 12-17, 18-59 and ≥60 y.o., important stress on healthcare is expected in the absence of measures. Unvaccinated individuals contribute 12 times more to transmission than vaccinated ones. Unvaccinated adults ≥60 y.o. represent 3% of the population but 36% of hospitalisations. Non-pharmaceutical measures have a similar impact whether they apply to all or only to unvaccinated individuals. Intensity of measures required to control an epidemic rebound remain substantially lower than in the absence of vaccines. Of all the interventions considered including repeated testing and non-pharmaceutical measures, vaccination of the unvaccinated is the most effective. Vaccinating children is important to protect them from the deleterious effects of non-pharmaceutical measures. Strategies to control an autumn wave should account for the changing epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in partially vaccinated populations.
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